Cold take on Nvidia’s stock slide.
• Regardless of how well the next CEO performs, Nvidia’s future revenue potential has likely taken a hit. There’s now a motivated bipartisan push to further restrict chip sales to China and crack down on reselling chips to Chinese customers.
• The lack of succession planning means there’s no Tim Cook-type ready to step in. And unlike Microsoft’s transition to Satya, there’s a real risk that executives passed over for CEO get recruited by VCs to start their own companies.
A decline in stock price seems warranted given both observations. The question is whether ~30% is too high or too low.
My gut says too high.
@carnage4life if they stop doing circular financing, channel stuffing, or export control evasion, who is going to buy their chips? They're sitting on a mountain of them that nobody can use because datacenters can't be built fast enough, and behind that, they can't be turned on because power generation and transmission can't be built fast enough. On top of all that, it's not even certain that demand for/ROI on slop is high enough to justify all that. So the stock price is still too high.