Dwarkesh Patel - "The avalanche that hit math is coming for AI development"

"I've now come to the view that we’re only a couple of years away, and possibly only a couple of months away, from AIs that are as good as the best humans at AI research..."

https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/rsi

(I think there's a very decent chance he's wrong. I sure hope he is. But what if there's even a ~5% or ~10% chance he's right?)