#NCwx #SevereWeather @AE4WX @czarbucks @amyedge @DismalManorGang
From North Carolina’s Weather Authority on FB: ❄️ All signs continue to point to the first round of accumulating snow in parts of the mountains early Friday into Saturday morning. This NW flow snow event will be heavily elevation-driven; the higher you are, the more likely you are to see and accumulate snowfall. A strong cold front will move through the state Thursday into Friday, setting the stage for much colder temperatures and the season's coldest air statewide. In the wake of the cold front gusty NW winds will develop, setting the stage for a classic NW flow snow event across the North Carolina mountains. A northwest flow snow event (NWFS) occurs when cold, dry air from the northwest moves over the Appalachian Mountains, producing snow due to orographic lift (terrain forcing).
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS: I've been looking at the latest data and using my knowledge from past events to create my first call snow map for the Friday. , I feel pretty confident there will be some accumulating snow mainly above 2,500 feet in the North Carolina mountains and especially as you head above 3,300 feet. At this point, some of the highest communities along the North Carolina/Tennessee line could see a couple of inches of snow, it appears. The big winners for snow are above 3,300ft into the Smokies and along the North Carolina-Tennessee border, with several inches of snow, like along the highest peaks, for example, the Smokies mountains, Mount Mitchell, the western-facing ski resorts, and parts of the high Blue Ridge Parkway. A few ridgetop locations could exceed 5+ inches, especially in the Smokies, Clingmans Dome, and Max Patch, Wolf Laurel, very high locations of the mountains, Roan Mountain/ Carvers Gap. Snowfall amounts depend heavily on elevation; the higher you are, the more likely it is. At this point, at least some flakes could reach the valleys below 2,500 ft. Snow elsewhere in the foothills is unlikely at this point. I'm thinking 2-5 inches for all the high locations, mainly above 4,000 ft. on the NC/TN line. Everywhere else, dusting to 2 inches, highly dependent on bands.
It's been so warm, so if the snow rates are low, it'll just melt so most of this will accumulate on elevated surfaces. However, some slick roads are possible Friday night for sure in the high elevations. Does not look like a big event, but the favored NW locations will see some snow come down! The higher you’re located in the mountains, the better. The valley and lower elevations could see some flakes fly Friday into Saturday am, but really not expecting much at this point. As always, this could change if more moisture setups or less; I'll keep you updated!
-Ethan
