"Effects of a Nuclear Detonation in Low Earth Orbit" https://arxiv.org/abs/2611.09827
"For a 1-Mt detonation at 500 km over the South Atlantic, repeated belt exposure disables approximately 98% of modeled satellites within one week"
Using the CRASH Clock framework, they expect 19 primary collisions in the first year (they don't model secondary collisions...)
Let's please please please not do this ever.