Meh just kicking back refreshing the RNZ results page on repeat while trying not to get a stomach ulcer
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Looks like from the ~700k special votes, we'd need to see at least 2x of: Nelson Bays, Wairarapa, Whangarei, and Hamilton East shift before Parliament is hung.
At that point, Opportunity becomes 'kingmaker', choosing major party with most seats (NAT). And so the only plausible pathway for Left at that point is a scenario where negotiations between Opportunity and NZ First implode to dumpster fire, Opportunity then calling Labour.
Does that sound right?
So Luxon could remain, but weaker than ever with Act and NZ First combining as a very big tail to wag the dog. With Willis out, this gives Seymour disproportionate negotiating power to become, l'horreur, Finance Minister.
Plausible, however brutal?
@JulianOliver it's an awful thought. Honestly I wish we could just have nat+labour coalition in the centre with no crazies. But they would never do it
Tough night.
That vote-splitting campaign by the right wing businessman Mowbray worked well.
While National is 9% less popular than last election on the party vote (not even breaking 30%), & where proportionality has almost always decided elections, this time it does not matter. The overhang has meant they have the electoral seats to get them well over the line.
Good overview here;
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/politics/2424149/election-2026-has-vote-splitting-saved-a-battered-coalition
Election 2026: Has vote splitting saved a battered coalition?