Post by @molly0xfff@hachyderm.io

Results are coming in, and I’m tracking how crypto and AI super PACs’ bets are faring live on Tech Influence Watch: https://influence.citationneeded.news/2026/results

I’ll thread the industries’ biggest wins and losses tonight below 🧵

#USpol #USpolitics #midterms

Tech Influence Watch

Election results | Tech Influence Watch

Results from the latest federal elections, and how candidates backed or opposed by crypto- and AI-focused super PACs and donors fared

#midterms #uspolitics #uspol

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Molly White

@molly0xfff@hachyderm.io 3 hr. ago

@jeroen94704 no, some of these PACs (particularly on the AI side) are supporting Dems

Michael Bishop ☕ 📚 🚲 🌱

@MichaelBishop@mastodon.world 6 hr. ago

@molly0xfff Thanks for keeping us updated on the Crypto criminals and the election they lost.

Cyberlyra

@cyberlyra@hachyderm.io 7 hr. ago

@molly0xfff
molly this is excellent!!!!

Molly White

@molly0xfff@hachyderm.io 8 hr. ago

Not much to report yet. So far, the only called races with crypto or AI money are ones where the industries backed safe or likely winners (plus John Deaton, who never stood a chance in Massachusetts). This is part of their strategy to buy/reward loyalty and pad the PAC win rates.

Four bar charts showing how crypto and AI super PAC money in the general election has fared so far, grouped by the kind of race it went into. Each chart splits the money into winning side, losing side, and not yet called.

Competitive races (Toss-up or Lean): 0 of 16 called. All $92.4 million is not yet called.

Backing the winners (helping the favorite in races rated Solid): 15 of 44 called. $3.1 million (30%) on the winning side, none on the losing side, and $7.5 million (70%) not yet called.

Backing the underdog (helping the other side in races rated Likely or Solid): 1 of 1 called. All $706,000 on the losing side.

Likely winners (helping the favorite in races rated Likely): 1 of 7 called. $332,000 (4%) on the winning side, none on the losing side, and $8 million (96%) not yet called. — Four bar charts showing how crypto and AI super PAC money in the general election has fared so far, grouped by the kind of race it went into. Each chart splits the money into winning side, losing side, and not yet called. Competitive races (Toss-up or Lean): 0 of 16 called. All $92.4 million is not yet called. Backing the winners (helping the favorite in races rated Solid): 15 of 44 called. $3.1 million (30%) on the winning side, none on the losing side, and $7.5 million (70%) not yet called. Backing the underdog (helping the other side in races rated Likely or Solid): 1 of 1 called. All $706,000 on the losing side. Likely winners (helping the favorite in races rated Likely): 1 of 7 called. $332,000 (4%) on the winning side, none on the losing side, and $8 million (96%) not yet called.

McNeely

@McNeely@indieweb.social 7 hr. ago

@molly0xfff ok so we know that they are trying to pad numbers based on supporting "safe" voters but do you have any numbers on how they have done in competitive races?

Molly White

@molly0xfff@hachyderm.io 7 hr. ago

@McNeely 0–1 so far, after the South Carolina Senate was called for Annie Andrews just now

Molly White

@molly0xfff@hachyderm.io 7 hr. ago

NBC projects Democrat Annie Andrews will defeat “Data Center Darline” Graham, backed by $4.1 million in AI super PAC money. This was the AI PACs' biggest bet on a competitive general election race. https://influence.citationneeded.news/2026/elections/SC-S

Screenshot from my newsletter earlier today (pinned):

#USpol #USpolitics #midterms

This is the artificial intelligence sector’s biggest bet on a competitive general election race. American Mission, the Republican arm of the Leading the Future PAC network, may have thought they were backing an easy winner with their first expenditure of around $375,000 to back Lindsey Graham in his primary. But since then, it has added more than $2 million to back Darline Graham in her primary runoff election and general election. In mid-October, Leading the Future brought in reinforcements: Building the Future, a new arm of the network created specifically to support pro-data center candidates, has spent $2.5 million supporting her in the general, its only federal spending so far. Crypto’s Fellowship PAC also spent $550,000 to back Lindsey Graham in the primary, but did not show up with additional funds to back his replacement.

Andrews has used the data center issue and Graham’s AI funding to tar her opponent as “Data Center Darline”. While Andrews has called for moratoriums on new data centers in the state, Graham has opposed them, saying they would give China a chance to get ahead on AI development.12 — This is the artificial intelligence sector’s biggest bet on a competitive general election race. American Mission, the Republican arm of the Leading the Future PAC network, may have thought they were backing an easy winner with their first expenditure of around $375,000 to back Lindsey Graham in his primary. But since then, it has added more than $2 million to back Darline Graham in her primary runoff election and general election. In mid-October, Leading the Future brought in reinforcements: Building the Future, a new arm of the network created specifically to support pro-data center candidates, has spent $2.5 million supporting her in the general, its only federal spending so far. Crypto’s Fellowship PAC also spent $550,000 to back Lindsey Graham in the primary, but did not show up with additional funds to back his replacement. Andrews has used the data center issue and Graham’s AI funding to tar her opponent as “Data Center Darline”. While Andrews has called for moratoriums on new data centers in the state, Graham has opposed them, saying they would give China a chance to get ahead on AI development.12

Tech Influence Watch

South Carolina Senate election | Tech Influence Watch

Cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence industry spending to influence the South Carolina Senate election.

Molly White

@molly0xfff@hachyderm.io 6 hr. ago

Democrat Manny Rutinel projected to win Colorado District 8. That’s a win for the Anthropic-linked Public First AI industry super PAC network, which spent $600,000 to oppose Republican Gabe Evans. Chris Larsen’s You Can Push Back PAC also backed Rutinel with almost $1M in the primary.

#USpol #USpolitics #midterms #Colorado

Money involved in this election
Manny Rutinel (D): Raised $9.46M, $6.88M in outside spending to support ($977k from AI PACs), $5.88M in outside spending to oppose
Gabe Evans (R): Raised $7.25M, $2.44M in outside spending to support, $10.1M in outside spending to oppose ($599k from AI PACs)
Shannon Bird (D): Raised $2.37M, $928k in outside spending to support, $1.93M in outside spending to oppose
Evan Munsing (D): Raised $623k

Spending by crypto- and AI-focused committees
You Can Push Back AI
Total spending $976,940
to support Manny Rutinel in the primary
Jobs and Democracy PAC AI
Total spending $599,445
to oppose Gabe Evans in the general election — Money involved in this election Manny Rutinel (D): Raised $9.46M, $6.88M in outside spending to support ($977k from AI PACs), $5.88M in outside spending to oppose Gabe Evans (R): Raised $7.25M, $2.44M in outside spending to support, $10.1M in outside spending to oppose ($599k from AI PACs) Shannon Bird (D): Raised $2.37M, $928k in outside spending to support, $1.93M in outside spending to oppose Evan Munsing (D): Raised $623k Spending by crypto- and AI-focused committees You Can Push Back AI Total spending $976,940 to support Manny Rutinel in the primary Jobs and Democracy PAC AI Total spending $599,445 to oppose Gabe Evans in the general election

Molly White

@molly0xfff@hachyderm.io 6 hr. ago

Dem James Talarico projected to win Texas Senate! That’s a loss for crypto, and particularly the Winklevoss twins’ Digital Freedom Fund, which made last-minute $515K expenditures for Paxton and against Talarico. Cantor Fitzgerald-funded Fellowship PAC also supported Paxton with $500K in the runoff.

#USpol #USpolitics #midterms #Texas #TXSen

Money involved in this election
James Talarico (D): Raised $146M ($39.9k from industry donors), $58.1M in outside spending to support, $221M in outside spending to oppose ($514k from crypto PACs)
Ken Paxton (R): Raised $22.3M ($42.5k from industry donors), $95M in outside spending to support ($853k from crypto PACs), $122M in outside spending to oppose
John Cornyn (R): Raised $14.3M ($213k from industry donors), $6.64M in outside spending to support, $4.33M in outside spending to oppose
Jasmine Crockett (D): Raised $11.1M, $749k in outside spending to support, $4.48M in outside spending to oppose
Wesley Hunt (R): Raised $2.15M ($33.5k from industry donors), $934k in outside spending to support, $13M in outside spending to oppose

Spending by crypto- and AI-focused committees
Digital Freedom Fund crypto
Total spending $867,718
to support Ken Paxton in the general election
$353,338
to oppose James Talarico in the general election

Fellowship PAC crypto
Total spending $500,000
to support Ken Paxton in the primary runoff — Money involved in this election James Talarico (D): Raised $146M ($39.9k from industry donors), $58.1M in outside spending to support, $221M in outside spending to oppose ($514k from crypto PACs) Ken Paxton (R): Raised $22.3M ($42.5k from industry donors), $95M in outside spending to support ($853k from crypto PACs), $122M in outside spending to oppose John Cornyn (R): Raised $14.3M ($213k from industry donors), $6.64M in outside spending to support, $4.33M in outside spending to oppose Jasmine Crockett (D): Raised $11.1M, $749k in outside spending to support, $4.48M in outside spending to oppose Wesley Hunt (R): Raised $2.15M ($33.5k from industry donors), $934k in outside spending to support, $13M in outside spending to oppose Spending by crypto- and AI-focused committees Digital Freedom Fund crypto Total spending $867,718 to support Ken Paxton in the general election $353,338 to oppose James Talarico in the general election Fellowship PAC crypto Total spending $500,000 to support Ken Paxton in the primary runoff

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Molly White

@molly0xfff@hachyderm.io 6 hr. ago

Loss for AI and crypto PACs: Democrat Shomari Figures wins in Alabama’s 2nd. Crypto abandoned Figures after supporting him in 2024; this cycle, Cynthia Lummis-associated First Principles Digital spent $200K against him/for Rhett Marques. AI also supported Marques with $960K from the Anthropic-linked Public First network.

#USpol #USpolitics #midterms #Alabama

Money involved in this election
Shomari Figures (D): Raised $2.71M ($61.4k from industry donors), $4.44M in outside spending to support, $3.24M in outside spending to oppose ($102k from crypto PACs)
Rhett Marques (R): Raised $1.72M, $5.09M in outside spending to support ($102k from crypto PACs, $960k from AI PACs), $2.75M in outside spending to oppose
Hampton Harris (R): Raised $255k, $1.08k in outside spending to oppose

Spending by crypto- and AI-focused committees
Defending Our Values AI
Total spending $959,904
to support Rhett Marques in the primary

First Principles Digital crypto
Total spending $203,190
to support Rhett Marques in the general election
$101,595
to oppose Shomari Figures in the general election
$101,595 — Money involved in this election Shomari Figures (D): Raised $2.71M ($61.4k from industry donors), $4.44M in outside spending to support, $3.24M in outside spending to oppose ($102k from crypto PACs) Rhett Marques (R): Raised $1.72M, $5.09M in outside spending to support ($102k from crypto PACs, $960k from AI PACs), $2.75M in outside spending to oppose Hampton Harris (R): Raised $255k, $1.08k in outside spending to oppose Spending by crypto- and AI-focused committees Defending Our Values AI Total spending $959,904 to support Rhett Marques in the primary First Principles Digital crypto Total spending $203,190 to support Rhett Marques in the general election $101,595 to oppose Shomari Figures in the general election $101,595

Molly White

@molly0xfff@hachyderm.io 6 hr. ago

HUGE loss for crypto super PACs: $64 million down the drain as Democrat Sherrod Brown wins against John Husted in the Ohio Senate race. This was more than 1/3 of all crypto spending this cycle. $56.5M from flagship crypto PAC Fairshake, $7.5M from Winklevosses’ Digital Freedom Fund.

https://influence.citationneeded.news/2026/elections/OH-S-special

From my newsletter today (https://www.citationneeded.news/2026-election-guide/):

#USpol #USpolitics #midterms #Ohio #OHSen

Brown has maintained a narrow lead in recent polls, by between 1.7 and 3.1 points according to several polling aggregators.6 If he wins, it would be the most expensive — and humiliating — failure in crypto’s brief campaign finance history. It would also undercut the message the industry has worked hard to send. “This is what happens when you mess with the crypto army,” Cameron Winklevoss gloated after Brown’s loss in 2024.4 Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong wrote, “DC received a clear message that being anti-crypto is a good way to end your career.”7 The crypto industry’s stranglehold on Congress depends on that threat being believable. A Republican crypto lobbyist speaking to Politico warned that if Brown wins, “it is going to further neuter Fairshake’s perceived Sword of Damocles that they hang over candidates.”5

Tech Influence Watch

Ohio Senate special election | Tech Influence Watch

Cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence industry spending to influence the Ohio Senate special election.

Citation Needed

A crypto and AI money guide to election night

Where crypto and AI super PACs are spending, what their ads won’t talk about, and which races could embarrass them.

Molly White

@molly0xfff@hachyderm.io 6 hr. ago

Loss for conservative, Heritage-linked pro-AI group Alliance for a Better Future as Dem Adam Hamilton wins against Roger Marshall in Kansas Senate race. It was a relatively small outlay: just $81,000 for an ad promoting AI but warning AOC/Bernie will make AI regulations “for their benefit”.

#USpol #USpolitics #midterms #Kansas

Molly White

@molly0xfff@hachyderm.io 5 hr. ago

Another loss for crypto and AI: Dem Josh Turek takes the Iowa Senate. Winklevosses’ DFF spent $700K to oppose Turek and support Ashley Hinson; conservative pro AI Alliance for the Better Future spent $171K on Hinson.

#USpol #USpolitics #midterms #Iowa

Molly White

@molly0xfff@hachyderm.io 5 hr. ago

BTW: I am not just singling out losses in this thread. I’m posting about all competitive races where crypto and AI PACs spent on the general.

It’s just that they are getting wrecked across the board so far. Out of 8 that have been called, only CO-8 went their way: a fairly low-$ outlay on a Dem.

#USpol #USpolitics #midterms

Bar chart of crypto and AI super PAC money in competitive general election races (rated Toss-up or Lean), with 7 of 16 races called. $70.2 million (76%) was on the losing side, $714,000 (1%) was on the winning side, and $21.5 million (23%) is in races not yet called.

Bar chart of crypto and AI super PAC money that backed the underdog in general election races rated Likely or Solid. There was 1 such race and it has been called. All $706,000 was on the losing side. — Bar chart of crypto and AI super PAC money in competitive general election races (rated Toss-up or Lean), with 7 of 16 races called. $70.2 million (76%) was on the losing side, $714,000 (1%) was on the winning side, and $21.5 million (23%) is in races not yet called. Bar chart of crypto and AI super PAC money that backed the underdog in general election races rated Likely or Solid. There was 1 such race and it has been called. All $706,000 was on the losing side.

Molly White

@molly0xfff@hachyderm.io 5 hr. ago

Another loss for AI: In the Senate race for Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson beats longtime incumbent Susan Collins. The Heritage-linked Alliance for a Better Future spent $810,000 to back her. Crypto PACs were conspicuously absent in this race, likely because of her recent vote against the Clarity Act.

#USpol #USpolitics #midterms #Maine #MESen

2 media files

AI has been an issue in the Maine race — in particular, opposition to data centers coming to Maine and out-of-state billionaire tech donors’ influence on its politics. A recent, headline-making interruption to a debate between Collins and Jackson came from a man interjecting, “I’m terrified! AI data centers are destroying our climate. They’re poisoning our water.”27 (The headlines that followed were less about his concerns than about the candidates’ reactions: Collins blamed the outburst on Jackson’s campaign, and Jackson fired back, “Oh, shaddup. I don’t even know that kid.”)

AI and out-of-state-billionaire money has indeed come into the race to back Collins. The same conservative pro-AI advocacy group that backed Rogers, the Alliance for a Better Future, has also supported Collins with $810,000. — AI has been an issue in the Maine race — in particular, opposition to data centers coming to Maine and out-of-state billionaire tech donors’ influence on its politics. A recent, headline-making interruption to a debate between Collins and Jackson came from a man interjecting, “I’m terrified! AI data centers are destroying our climate. They’re poisoning our water.”27 (The headlines that followed were less about his concerns than about the candidates’ reactions: Collins blamed the outburst on Jackson’s campaign, and Jackson fired back, “Oh, shaddup. I don’t even know that kid.”) AI and out-of-state-billionaire money has indeed come into the race to back Collins. The same conservative pro-AI advocacy group that backed Rogers, the Alliance for a Better Future, has also supported Collins with $810,000.

As for crypto, it’s more the lack of money that’s noteworthy. The crypto sector is desperate to keep a Republican majority in the Senate, and Maine is one of the most at-risk Republican seats on the map. But Collins cast one of the three Republican “no” votes in the Clarity Act cloture vote, and the only one from a Republican up for re-election [I110]. As I wrote then, she probably decided that giving up potentially millions of dollars in crypto super PAC support was worth it to avoid defending a vote for a bill with meager ethics provisions, in a state fired up about Trump’s corruption. And it’s not as though she’s hurting for money: GOP spending has poured into the race without crypto’s help.

Molly White

@molly0xfff@hachyderm.io 4 hr. ago

Big crypto loss: In Wisconsin District 1, Democrat Mitchell Berman beats incumbent Bryan Steil, who chairs the House Financial Services subcommittee on digital assets. Fairshake spent $1M on Steil, Crypto.com spent $880K on attack ads against Berman via a PAC created solely to oppose him.

#USpol #USpolitics #midterms #Wisconsin

Molly White

@molly0xfff@hachyderm.io 4 hr. ago

AI-focused Public First super PAC network spent $512,000 to support Brian Poindexter in Ohio District 7’s Democratic primary, though not in the general. Poindexter has just beaten Republican incumbent Max Miller.

#USpol #USpolitics #midterms #Ohio

Molly White

@molly0xfff@hachyderm.io 4 hr. ago

In Texas District 35, AI and crypto succeeded in boosting Republican Carlos De La Cruz through his primary only to see him defeated by Democrat Johnny Garcia. AI’s Public First network spent $1.5 million in the primary and primary runoff; crypto’s Fairshake contributed $616K in the primary.

#USpol #USpolitics #midterms #Texas

WINGS_radio

@WINGS_radio@mastodon.social 14 min. ago

@molly0xfff Thanks for adding that up for us.

MacCruiskeen

@maccruiskeen@social.linux.pizza 7 hr. ago

@molly0xfff Does that include Musk money, or is he in a category by himself?

Molly White

@molly0xfff@hachyderm.io 7 hr. ago

@maccruiskeen it does not -- his spending and businesses are too diffuse to lump in with crypto/ai IMO, though i do have a bubble for him in the big spenders graphic on the TIW front page