Post by @molly0xfff@hachyderm.io

Crypto- and AI-focused super PACs have poured nearly $250 million into this year’s elections. Tonight we find out what it bought.

Here’s my guide to the races to watch, where the money went, and which results could embarrass the industry: https://www.citationneeded.news/2026-election-guide/

#crypto #cryptocurrency #AI #ArtificialIntelligence #USpol #USpolitics #citationNeededNewsletter

Citation Needed

A crypto and AI money guide to election night

Where crypto and AI super PACs are spending, what their ads won’t talk about, and which races could embarrass them.

#citationneedednewsletter #cryptocurrency #crypto #artificialintelligence #uspolitics #uspol #ai

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Molly White

@molly0xfff@hachyderm.io 30 min. ago

The biggest race for crypto PACs is the Ohio Senate. A week after the Clarity Act failed in the Senate, they started pouring in $64 million to oppose Democrat Sherrod Brown and boost Husted. Brown still leads narrowly. If he wins, it’s the most expensive failure in crypto’s short campaign finance history.

#crypto #cryptocurrency #AI #ArtificialIntelligence #USpol #USpolitics #citationNeededNewsletter #Ohio #Senate

Molly White

@molly0xfff@hachyderm.io 29 min. ago

But most of the money is backing winners. Crypto and AI PACs spent in 105 contests that were never in doubt, versus 44 competitive ones. The major networks didn’t back a single underdog. This is part of a strategy to buy/reward loyalty and pad the PACs’ win rate.

#crypto #cryptocurrency #AI #ArtificialIntelligence #USpol #USpolitics #citationNeededNewsletter

Where the money went
$249.5 million · 171 contests†
Most dollars went to a few battlegrounds. Most contests were safe seats.
Two stacked bar charts comparing spending by tracked crypto- and AI-focused super PACs: $249.5 million across 171 contests. The dollars bar is mostly competitive races at $179.9 million (72%). Safe bets got $43.9 million (18%), likely winners $25 million (10%), and underdogs $741,000 (less than 1%). A bracket marks the Ohio Senate special election, which alone accounts for $64.2 million, or 26% of all spending. The races bar is the reverse: safe bets are 105 races (61%), competitive races 44 (26%), likely winners 20 (12%), and underdogs 2 (1%).
Safe bets are 61% of contests but 18% of dollars; competitive contests are 26% of contests but 72% of dollars. — Where the money went $249.5 million · 171 contests† Most dollars went to a few battlegrounds. Most contests were safe seats. Two stacked bar charts comparing spending by tracked crypto- and AI-focused super PACs: $249.5 million across 171 contests. The dollars bar is mostly competitive races at $179.9 million (72%). Safe bets got $43.9 million (18%), likely winners $25 million (10%), and underdogs $741,000 (less than 1%). A bracket marks the Ohio Senate special election, which alone accounts for $64.2 million, or 26% of all spending. The races bar is the reverse: safe bets are 105 races (61%), competitive races 44 (26%), likely winners 20 (12%), and underdogs 2 (1%). Safe bets are 61% of contests but 18% of dollars; competitive contests are 26% of contests but 72% of dollars.

G.I. Robot :bc:

@GuyDudeman@beige.party 25 min. ago

@molly0xfff Funny… I read “AI PACS” as “AIPAC”… and I’m probably right there too.

Molly White

@molly0xfff@hachyderm.io 17 min. ago

@GuyDudeman yeah, there’s a reason i try to use “ai-focused”

Molly White

@molly0xfff@hachyderm.io 29 min. ago

Crypto has also stopped spending big for Democrats in general elections. In 2024 it put $10M apiece behind Slotkin and Gallego. This cycle, no Democrat has drawn more than about $1M, and those are safe incumbents who voted the industry’s way.

#crypto #cryptocurrency #AI #ArtificialIntelligence #USpol #USpolitics #citationNeededNewsletter

In general elections, the crypto industry has stopped spending big to help Democrats. In 2024, it spent about $10 million apiece helping Democrats Elissa Slotkin and Ruben Gallego win their Senate races. This cycle, its Democratic spending has largely been confined to primaries against other Democrats. Even then, its biggest expenditure in a Democratic primary didn’t help any Democrat in particular: it was $10 million in opposition spending against Juliana Stratton in Illinois’s Senate race. Stratton won anyway, by nearly 8 points.

The crypto sector hasn’t spent more than about $1 million helping any Democrat in a general election, and those are mostly rewards to industry allies who will safely win re-election regardless. Its biggest general-election spending supporting Democrats was about $1 million apiece for three incumbents in safe or likely seats: Janelle Bynum (OR-05, Solid D), Steven Horsford (NV-04, Likely D), and Derek Tran (CA-45, Likely D), who all voted for the industry’s top priorities, the Clarity [I110] and Genius Acts [I89]. — In general elections, the crypto industry has stopped spending big to help Democrats. In 2024, it spent about $10 million apiece helping Democrats Elissa Slotkin and Ruben Gallego win their Senate races. This cycle, its Democratic spending has largely been confined to primaries against other Democrats. Even then, its biggest expenditure in a Democratic primary didn’t help any Democrat in particular: it was $10 million in opposition spending against Juliana Stratton in Illinois’s Senate race. Stratton won anyway, by nearly 8 points. The crypto sector hasn’t spent more than about $1 million helping any Democrat in a general election, and those are mostly rewards to industry allies who will safely win re-election regardless. Its biggest general-election spending supporting Democrats was about $1 million apiece for three incumbents in safe or likely seats: Janelle Bynum (OR-05, Solid D), Steven Horsford (NV-04, Likely D), and Derek Tran (CA-45, Likely D), who all voted for the industry’s top priorities, the Clarity [I110] and Genius Acts [I89].

Molly White

@molly0xfff@hachyderm.io 27 min. ago

In South Carolina, the AI industry is making its biggest general-election bet: about $5M behind Republican Darline Graham. $2.5M came from Building the Future, a Leading the Future arm that appeared in October and hasn’t spent on any other federal race. Her opponent calls her “Data Center Darline.”

#crypto #cryptocurrency #AI #ArtificialIntelligence #USpol #USpolitics #citationNeededNewsletter #SouthCarolina #Senate #SCSen

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South Carolina Senate: Darline Graham (R) vs. Annie Andrews (D)
$5.7 million • Lean Republican • From crypto and AI PACs

The South Carolina Senate race wasn’t supposed to be competitive. Trump carried the state by 18 points in 2024, and it hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1998.10 But then Lindsey Graham died while in office in July and was replaced by his sister Darline, who was appointed by the governor and has never held elected office. Her apparent lack of qualifications, combined with party divisions and strong Democratic fundraising, has made the race surprisingly competitive, and aggregate polls have recently shown Graham leading by just 1.4 points.11 — South Carolina Senate: Darline Graham (R) vs. Annie Andrews (D) $5.7 million • Lean Republican • From crypto and AI PACs The South Carolina Senate race wasn’t supposed to be competitive. Trump carried the state by 18 points in 2024, and it hasn’t elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1998.10 But then Lindsey Graham died while in office in July and was replaced by his sister Darline, who was appointed by the governor and has never held elected office. Her apparent lack of qualifications, combined with party divisions and strong Democratic fundraising, has made the race surprisingly competitive, and aggregate polls have recently shown Graham leading by just 1.4 points.11

This is the artificial intelligence sector’s biggest bet on a competitive general election race. American Mission, the Republican arm of the Leading the Future PAC network, may have thought they were backing an easy winner with their first expenditure of around $375,000 to back Lindsey Graham in his primary. But since then, it has added more than $2 million to back Darline Graham in her primary runoff election and general election. In mid-October, Leading the Future brought in reinforcements: Building the Future, a new arm of the network created specifically to support pro-data center candidates, has spent $2.5 million supporting her in the general, its only federal spending so far. Crypto’s Fellowship PAC also spent $550,000 to back Lindsey Graham in the primary, but did not show up with additional funds to back his replacement.

Andrews has used the data center issue and Graham’s AI funding to tar her opponent as “Data Center Darline”. While Andrews has called for moratoriums on new data centers in the state, Graham has opposed them, saying they would give China a chance to get ahead on AI development.12

Graham has received just over $48,000 in candidate-specific contributions from crypto and AI executives, mostly from Andreessen Horowitz, the Winklevoss twins, and Microsoft. Andrews has received no crypto- or AI-associated PAC support, and no candidate-specific contributions from the associated companies I track (or their executives). — Andrews has used the data center issue and Graham’s AI funding to tar her opponent as “Data Center Darline”. While Andrews has called for moratoriums on new data centers in the state, Graham has opposed them, saying they would give China a chance to get ahead on AI development.12 Graham has received just over $48,000 in candidate-specific contributions from crypto and AI executives, mostly from Andreessen Horowitz, the Winklevoss twins, and Microsoft. Andrews has received no crypto- or AI-associated PAC support, and no candidate-specific contributions from the associated companies I track (or their executives).

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