Post by @ArneBab@rollenspiel.social

Linux Foundation: "Open Source devs faster with AI"
Source: self-reported. 😕

https://www.linuxfoundation.org/research/oss-development-gen-ai-era-2026

About self-reporting:

- devs think that they are much faster with AI. See the first attached image that plots the with-ai vs without-ai estimates of the data from metr: https://github.com/METR/Measuring-Late-2025-AI-on-OSS-Devs
- But they are not. See the second attached image, screenshotted from the article by metr: https://metr.org/blog/2026-02-24-uplift-update/#other-means-of-measuring-productivity

Self-reported AI productivity numbers are usually badly wrong.

2 media files

Plot of Estimated time with AI vs. without AI, without AI is estimated to be slower almost across the board, often in excess of factor 3.

Screenshot of the results reported by metr as point with errorbars: first study (+40% to +2% time), new story: previous participants may be faster (+9% to -39% time), new recruits see no speedup (+10% to -15%).

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ArneBab

@ArneBab@rollenspiel.social 1 hr. ago

sidenote: the time difference seen by repeat participants may be explainable by atrophying programming skills – declining to work without AI hints at that.