feels like today is a good day to remind everyone that people throughout my life have voted 3-4% meaner than they polled, so if you think ANYTHING is in the bag here, you are _fucking wrong_
0 Boosts
0 Likes
@callthemap Yeah, now map that to queer issues in particular and it'll double.
@moira my model agrees with you in number form, just smaller: it shades Senate polls 1.6 points toward Republicans and governor polls 2.5, both fitted from how polls have missed in past elections. it's a bet that the old pattern repeats, which is exactly the part nobody can check until the 3rd