@CelloMomOnCars The risk is that this is spiralling now into a wider regional conflict out of the hands of just Iran and the US. The Houthis are cutting off access to the Red Sea so even if the Straits of Hormuz were sorted the oil and everything else still can’t move.
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This one doesn't make sense:
"[Macron] asked the European Commission to delay by one year new EU rules that will impose fines on oil and gas companies which fail to report their methane emissions."
https://www.politico.eu/article/macron-asks-von-der-leyen-to-ease-fuel-rules-to-tame-rising-prices/
Oil and gas companies are making record profits. They would have no trouble paying these fines. And a curb on methane emissions is one fine way to buy some time.
The US produced 5.2 million barrels of diesel per day, uses 3.5-4 Mbpd domestically, so exports about 1.5 Mbpd.
An export ban could lead to unintended and lasting consequences: decreased diesel production (companies LOVE that profit), inflation on imports bc of spiking prices abroad, and even more reputational damage to the US.
The policy that makes voters happy for a short time isn't always the right policy.
There are now more than 90 countries with some form of energy subsidy in response to the Iran war (price caps, reduced taxes, etc.) but the cost of those subsidies are starting to strain national budgets.
https://www.ft.com/content/2cf96368-8f17-4b5d-88e0-9c5e4058ffe4
The dependence on oil and gas leads to fossil fuel austerity.
@christineburns
I agree, it's looking like this will get a lot worse. In the US, this will have a big effect in the midterm elections. Elsewhere, people being squeezed like this will unfortunately open the door to authoritarianism and populism.
The clean energy transition can't come soon enough. Now it's becoming super clear that relying on energy that has to squeeze through bottlenecks to reach you is not a good idea.