gettin' spicy again out there
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#oil #OilPrice #economy #inflation #fascism #FuckTrump #FuckTheGOP #FuckRepublicans
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(Not to mention how much Iranian production is throttled.)
It's that "still below pre-war numbers" part that's so critical, because without _actual_ excess, reserves can't be refilled.
Note how the SPR has not climbed, note how other countries have probably not been able to do a huge amount of reserves fill. I _suspect_ that the spike I noted in the last weekly update was someone moving to address something they saw coming, likely this.
And all this means that while they've done a decent job of preventing shortages - at least, in the West - all those buffers that worked to prevent that are... very thin, now.
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So if Iran manages to shut down these diversions and re-routings for any length of time, there's precious little buffer remaining to cover production losses which would result. Emergency supplies are by no means completely depleted - but stocks are low. Buffers are thin. Cracks, as they say, have already appeared.
If previous attacks on the East-West pipeline, for example, were really mostly test strikes, and they now know how to shut it down _hard_ - well, that's one effective route.
And that's not the only critical pipeline in range.
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Traders may be thinking this won't be any different than the last couple of campaigns, but were I Iran, I'd be thinking about battlefield shaping, of staging, and most importantly, of enemy conditioning.
I'd be thinking of _softening_ the opponent before the real strike. As would, I should note, _literally any competent military commander_ - which the US currently lacks in both Kegseth and Shitstain.
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The majority of battles are won _before_ they're fought. And it looks to me like the actual battlefield - the economic battlefield - has been shaped pretty well by Iran.
So if - and that's a big "if" - Iran does in fact retain the capabilities they claim, if they can _durably_ degrade oil exports...
It won't be months before the impact of that hits. It'll be weeks.
So... pay attention. Watch that balloon. It might be going up.
@moira Who would have guessed that the Tangerine Shitgibbon was secretly an environmentalist hell bent on curing our addiction to fossil fuels? 🤔
@pmonks I know you're joking, but not even in jest. US carbon output has soared under this evil fuck, and progress has been set back a literal decade _already_.
@moira Yep, though high gasoline prices appear to be driving aome changes in consumer behaviour (e.g. hybrid and EV purchases, despite his attempts to thwart the latter).
If you're wondering why it's getting spicy, well, to me it looks like Shitstain and Netanyahu are winding up for another bombing campaign, with Netanyahu officially expanding the war into the West Bank and the US going at Iran.
So here's the thing:
When the US et al say that more oil is getting through the Strait than before the war, that is of course a lie. But if you included _all diversions_, some of which are _massive_, they actually got close for a while - and Saudi oil _in particular_ actually _did_ break the pre-war average.
Prices haven't gone down because all this is incredibly expensive, and if you don't _just_ count Saudi flows, it's still below pre-war numbers.
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#oil #OilPrice #war #IranWar #inflation #fascism